Last updated: April, 2016
India has emerged as the fastest growing major economy in the world as per the Central Statistics Organisation (CSO) and International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to the Economic Survey 2015-16, the Indian economy will continue to grow more than 7 per cent in 2016-17.
The improvement in India’s economic fundamentals has accelerated in the year 2015 with the combined impact of strong government reforms, RBI's inflation focus supported by benign global commodity prices.
India was ranked the highest globally in terms of consumer confidence during October-December quarter of 2015, continuing its earlier trend of being ranked the highest during first three quarters of 2015, as per the global consumer confidence index created by Nielsen.
According to IMF World Economic Outlook Update (January 2016), Indian economy is expected to grow at 7-7.75 per cent during FY 2016-17, despite the uncertainties in the global market. The Economic Survey 2015-16 had forecasted that the Indian economy will growing by more than seven per cent for the third successive year 2016-17 and can start growing at eight per cent or more in next two years.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India have increased by 29 per cent during October 2014-December 2015 period post the launch of Make in India campaign, compared to the 15-month period before the launch.
The Nikkei/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February 2016 was reported at 51.1, indicating expansion in Indian manufacturing activity for a second month in a row, as both domestic and foreign demand increased due to lower prices.
The steps taken by the government in recent times have shown positive results as India's gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2011-12) prices 2015-16 is Rs 113.5 trillion (US$ 1.668 trillion), as against Rs 105.5 trillion (US$ 1.55 trillion) in 2014-15, registering a growth rate of 7.6 per cent. The economic activities which witnessed significant growth were ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 11.5 per cent and ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication services’ at 10.7 per cent.
According to a Goldman Sachs report released in September 2015, India could grow at a potential 8 per cent on average during from fiscal 2016 to 2020 powered by greater access to banking, technology adoption, urbanisation and other structural reforms.
With the improvement in the economic scenario, there have been various investments leading to increased M&A activity. Some of them are as follows:
India has emerged as one of the strongest performers with respect to deals across the world in terms of Aergers and Acquisitions (M&A). The total transaction value of M&A involving Indian companies stood at US$ 26.3 billion with 930 deals in 2015 as against US$ 29.4 billion involving 870 deals in 2014.In the M&A space, Telecom was the dominant sector, amounting to 40 per cent of the total transaction value. Also, Private equity (PE) investments increased 86 per cent y-o-y to US$ 1.43 billion.
Total private equity (PE) investments in India for 2015 reached a record high of US$ 19.5 billion through 159 deals, according to the PwC MoneyTree India report.
According to The World Bank, India's per capita income is expected to cross Rs 100,000 (US$ 1,505.4) in FY 2017 from Rs 93,231 (US$ 1,403.5) in FY 2016.
Numerous foreign companies are setting up their facilities in India on account of various government initiatives like Make in India and Digital India. Mr. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, has launched the Make in India initiative with an aim to boost the manufacturing sector of Indian economy. This initiative is expected to increase the purchasing power of an average Indian consumer, which would further boost demand, and hence spur development, in addition to benefiting investors. Besides, the Government has also come up with Digital India initiative, which focuses on three core components: creation of digital infrastructure, delivering services digitally and to increase the digital literacy. Finance Minister MrArunJaitley stated that the government is looking at a number of reforms and resolution of pending tax disputes to attract investments.
Currently, the manufacturing sector in India contributes over 15 per cent of the GDP. The Government of India, under the Make in India initiative, is trying to give boost to the contribution made by the manufacturing sector and aims to take it up to 25 per cent of the GDP. Following the government’s initiatives several plans for investment have been undertaken which are as follows:
Under the Digital India initiative numerous steps have been taken by the Government of India. Some of them are as follows:
Based on the recommendations of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB), FDI inflows have increased 40 per cent during April-December 2015 to reach US$ 29.44 billion.
The Government of India has launched an initiative to create 100 smart cities as well as Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) for 500 cities with an outlay of Rs 48,000 crore (US$ 7.47 billion) and Rs 50,000 crore (US$ 7.34 billion) crore respectively. Smart cities are satellite towns of larger cities which will consist of modern infrastructure and will be digitally connected. The program was formally launched on June 25, 2015. The Phase I for Smart City Kochi (SCK) will be built on a total area of 650,000 sq. ft., having a floor space greater than 100,000 sq. ft. Besides, it will also generate a total of 6,000 direct jobs in the IT sector.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Moody’s Investors Service have forecasted that India will witness a GDP growth rate of 7.5 per cent in 2016, due to improved investor confidence, lower food prices and better policy reforms. Besides, according to mid-year update of United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects, India is expected to grow at 7.6 per cent in 2015 and at 7.7 per cent in 2016.
As per the latest Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report by World Bank, India is leading The World Bank’s growth chart for major economies. The Bank believes India to become the fastest growing major economy by 2015, growing at 7.5 per cent.
According to Mr Jayant Sinha, Minister of State for Finance, Indian economy would continue to grow at 7 to 9 per cent and would double in size to US$ 4–5 trillion in a decade, becoming the third largest economy in absolute terms.
Furthermore, initiatives like Make in India and Digital India will play a vital role in the driving the Indian economy.
Exchange Rate Used: INR 1 = US$ 0.0147 as on March 01, 2016